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China publicly announced it launched a ballistic missile from a nuclear-powered submarine into the Pacific Ocean Monday — a rare acknowledgment of its sea-based nuclear capabilities that came as U.S. allies deepen security ties in the Indo-Pacific and NATO leaders prepare to meet amid growing concerns over Beijing’s military ambitions.
China’s People’s Liberation Army Navy said the missile, carrying a dummy warhead, was fired from a Type 094 Jin-class ballistic missile submarine during what Beijing described as a routine annual training exercise.
The launch highlights one of the Pentagon’s biggest long-term concerns: China’s ability to field a more survivable nuclear force capable of threatening the U.S. and its allies from the sea. Unlike land-based missile launches, a ballistic missile fired from a submerged nuclear submarine demonstrates one of the most survivable elements of a country’s nuclear arsenal because the vessels are significantly harder to detect and destroy before they can launch a retaliatory strike.
The growing capability also means China could eventually threaten the U.S. homeland from a wider range of patrol areas, reducing the need for its submarines to venture into more vulnerable waters.
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Chinese officials said the launch landed in a designated area of the Pacific Ocean and was conducted in accordance with international law.
“It is a routine arrangement in China’s annual military training program. It is consistent with international law and customary international practice and is not directed at any specific country or target,” Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said at a news conference Monday.
“The whole process was safe, standard and professional. We hope relevant countries will not read too much into it.”
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The launch came on the eve of NATO’s summit in Ankara, Turkey, where alliance leaders are expected to focus primarily on the war in Ukraine, defense spending and collective security, while also addressing the growing strategic challenge posed by China. In recent years, NATO has expanded its engagement with Indo-Pacific partners including Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea, reflecting concerns that security in Europe and the Pacific is increasingly interconnected.
It was the first such test since 2024, according to Chinese state media, occurring at noon local time Monday.
New Zealand, which had just signed a defense pact with Fiji, claimed the missile landed in the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone, where testing atomic weapons is prohibited.
China said the missile carried a dummy rather than a nuclear warhead, and New Zealand did not accuse Beijing of violating the Treaty of Rarotonga, which establishes the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone and prohibits nuclear explosive devices within the region. Instead, officials criticized the launch as inconsistent with the spirit of maintaining the Pacific as a nuclear-free region.
Australia’s foreign minister Penny Wong said China had informed Australia ahead of the test but added, “Australia has been clear with China that we regard this as destabilizing to the region.”
China’s rapid military buildup added to the concern, according to Wong, who described it as “lacking in the transparency and reassurance as to intent that the region expect.”
In a joint cabinet statement, Japan raised “serious concern over the intensification of China’s military activities and strongly urged China to reconsider its actions.”
The Pentagon has repeatedly warned that China is rapidly modernizing and expanding its nuclear forces, projecting that Beijing will continue increasing the size, sophistication and survivability of its arsenal through the next decade. China’s military has also expanded naval patrols beyond the first island chain while increasing military pressure on Taiwan and asserting territorial claims in the South China Sea.
The Pentagon projects China will field more than 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, up from an estimated stockpile in the low 600s through 2024.
Officials say Beijing is expanding all three legs of its nuclear triad — land-based missiles, strategic bombers and nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines — while improving its ability to survive a first strike and retaliate.
At the same time, the People’s Liberation Army Navy is the world’s largest by number of battle force ships, while it has fielded advanced hypersonic weapons, expanded long-range missile forces and invested heavily in artificial intelligence, cyber capabilities and space-based systems that U.S. officials say are designed to challenge American military advantages in the Indo-Pacific.
U.S. defense officials have also warned that China continues to refine the capabilities needed for a potential conflict over Taiwan, including joint operations involving naval, air, missile and amphibious forces.
Annual military exercises around Taiwan have grown larger and more complex, reflecting Beijing’s efforts to increase military pressure while rehearsing operations that could support a blockade or invasion.
The U.S. has maintained a sea-based nuclear deterrent for decades through its fleet of Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines, which routinely conduct operational deterrent patrols and periodic test launches of Trident II D5 ballistic missiles. The Navy is now replacing those submarines with the next-generation Columbia class, which is expected to begin entering service later this decade.
Unlike China, however, the U.S. regularly publicizes scheduled Trident missile tests and has long operated a mature fleet of ballistic missile submarines that defense officials consider the most survivable leg of America’s nuclear triad.
The Pentagon and U.S. Indo-Pacific Command could not immediately be reached for comment.
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