How one NYC suburb could decide which party controls the House

The question of which party controls the House majority for the latter half of President Donald Trump’s term could come down to a group of suburbs just north of New York City.

Rep. Mike Lawler, R-N.Y., the first Republican to represent the area in roughly 40 years, is facing off against Democrat Army veteran Cait Conley in his bid for a third term in New York’s 17th Congressional District.

The expected close margins and dwindling number of battleground districts mean the race has garnered national attention, but Lawler is accusing Conley of ducking national-level debates.

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“It is, you know, vitally important for the voters in my district to hear from us — and I think, frankly, nationally, folks would benefit from it because it’s one of a handful of seats that really is going to make the difference and decide control of Congress,” Lawler told Fox News Digital.

“So, to me, if you’re running for public office, you should be able to stand on your own two feet and answer the questions from reporters, but moreover, make the direct and compelling case to voters about why you should be elected.”

Lawler said he challenged Conley to six debates after she won the primary to take him on, but that she has so far agreed to only two that are hosted by local networks.

When reached by Fox News Digital for comment, Conley’s campaign confirmed that she agreed to two debates with Lawler and accused him of running cover for fellow Republicans.

“Mike Lawler will do anything to avoid delivering for his constituents, like last week, when he went on CNN to defend domestic abuser Max Miller. While he continues to act like a spoiled brat begging for more national air time to lie about his record, Cait is focused on hearing directly from voters, who are sick of being represented by a career political hack and ready for someone who puts country over party,” Conley’s communications director, Maddy Rosen, said.

“Cait looks forward to their two scheduled televised debates where she will hold Mike Lawler accountable for failing the Hudson Valley, voting with Trump 100% of the time, and being a spineless, self-serving politician.”

Lawler said her refusal to agree to more debates showed that Conley was “not prepared” for the House and accused her of not even residing in the district she’s running to represent.

Conley’s communications director did not address the claims of her residency, but the candidate’s website touts her as a “fourth-generation Hudson Valley native.” Lawler was born and raised in the district.

Tying the GOP lawmaker to Trump is likely to be an oft-used attack by Democrats as the election season wears on, with Lawler being one of three House Republicans in the entire country who won their seats despite their districts voting for Kamala Harris in 2024.

But Lawler, who has sought to forge a reputation as a moderate, is in turn accusing Conley of pushing the same ideological issues as the far-left reaches of her party, including New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

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“The fact is, she can try to obfuscate here, and she can try and hide, but she stands shoulder to shoulder with them, and she refuses to denounce any of them,” Lawler said, referring to the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). “In fact, she praised Zohran Mamdani throughout the primary campaign. So to me, at the end of the day, whatever she calls herself doesn’t really matter. It’s the policies.”

Republicans are pointing to Mamdani and other DSA figures as a warning sign of where the Democratic Party is headed, arguing they’ll push the country further left if they win in the midterms.

In Lawler’s district just outside the Big Apple, that warning could be critical to his keeping the seat red.

Lawler defeated former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, D-N.Y., to win the seat in 2022. He then defended it against former Rep. Mondaire Jones, D-N.Y. With just a handful of swing districts on either side, the race for the House majority is almost guaranteed to be close.

Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to win the majority back from Republicans in November.