Obama-era inspection flaws in Iran could persist as experts warn of nuclear blind spots

Iran has agreed to let nuclear inspectors back into the country, Vice President JD Vance said Monday, as nuclear experts warned President Donald Trump’s new Tehran framework will only work if inspectors get the kind of unfettered access they say was missing from the Obama-era Iran deal.

The news, which Vance described as “a major milestone,” comes as Trump’s new Iran framework drew warnings from nuclear experts who told Fox News Digital the deal could leave Tehran too much control over its uranium stockpile unless inspectors first locate, secure and verify the material. The IAEA has not been able to resume full in-field verification of Iran’s declared nuclear program since last year’s strikes, apart from a June inspection at a single Iranian nuclear power plant.

The verification gap concern centers on language in the reported U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) saying the two sides will resolve the fate of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile through a still-to-be-negotiated process. The MOU identifies onsite “downblending,” which means diluting enriched uranium so it is less usable for a nuclear weapon, under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) supervision as the minimum acceptable method for dealing with the material. The MOU does not explicitly say Iran will retain a civilian nuclear program, but it says the two sides will discuss enrichment and other matters related to Iran’s “nuclear needs” in a final deal.

“Unfettered verification is everything,” Chuck DeVore, Chief National Initiatives Officer at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, told Fox News Digital. “There can be no denial for teams to inspect on the ground. Remote, technological means can achieve a lot, but nothing beats in-person inspections.”

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IAEA supervision would only be meaningful if inspectors first regain enough access to fully account for Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and ensure Tehran does not retain unchecked control of the material, experts warned Fox News Digital. Meanwhile, a recent IAEA report released this month underscored the agency’s limited visibility into Iran’s declared nuclear program after last year’s military strikes, saying that aside from a single inspection at an Iranian nuclear power plant, the agency “has not received information from Iran” about the status of its other declared nuclear facilities or associated nuclear material. “Nor has the Agency had access” to those sites for in-field verification, the report noted.

A senior administration official told Fox News Digital on background that the MOU required Iran’s regime to reaffirm that it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons, calling that a critical first step under Iran’s new Supreme Leader.

The official said the U.S. has reached understandings with Iran when it comes to its uranium stockpile, and the new deal is the first step of turning these understandings into real results, which include progress on enriched uranium stockpiles, dismantlement of nuclear sites, an enrichment ban and inspection access. The official added that the U.S. has already had productive discussions with Iran on those issues and, now that the MOU is formally in place, negotiators will work to make quick progress.

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The official also referred Fox News Digital to comments Vice President JD Vance made Thursday, when he said the deal’s benefits depend on Iran following through on its promises.

“They have promised not to enrich. They have promised that they would allow inspectors in to destroy that highly enriched stockpile. And then, of course, it’s not usable anymore. You take it somewhere else,” Vance said. “They promised a number of things, and that’s why the deal contemplates a number of benefits if they do those things. But it doesn’t do anything if they don’t actually meet those promises.”

“The Iranians have agreed to invite IAEA inspectors back into their country. That is a major milestone for the American people, and the first step in permanently denuclearize, easing or permanently ending a nuclear weapons program in Iran,” Vance added Monday after negotiations in Switzerland resumed. “And that’s exactly what we wanted to do. That’s exactly what we asked to happen.”

The Vice President said that the technical negotiations will continue over the next weeks and days, even in his absence. He said a framework for “proper political oversight” of these negotiations has been established as well. Vance simultaneously highlighted that “a lot of great progress on other nuclear talks” has already been made in the early days. 

Andrea Stricker, deputy director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ Nonproliferation Program, told Fox News Digital that any credible agreement must begin with recovering and safeguarding Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile, and not allowing Tehran to keep control of the material while it is diluted inside the country.

“Without verifiably dismantling and destroying all of Iran’s fundamental nuclear capabilities — nuclear material, facilities, centrifuges, manufacturing capabilities, equipment, documentation, and weaponization capacities, and ensuring scientists are redirected to civilian work — Iran’s pledge on paper is meaningless,” she told Fox News Digital, noting that Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile could, if recovered and further enriched, provide enough weapons-grade material for roughly 22 nuclear weapons.

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DeVore was more cautious about assigning a single number to Iran’s potential weapons capacity, saying the estimate depends heavily on the sophistication of the weapon design. He said the same stockpile could translate into fewer basic weapons or be stretched further by a more advanced nuclear program.

He said onsite downblending, if properly verified, would be aimed at making Iran’s roughly 1,000 pounds of 60% enriched uranium unavailable for further enrichment. DeVore cautioned that the material would still need additional processing to be turned into weapons-grade uranium and said he does not believe Tehran can currently do that because key facilities were destroyed in last year’s strikes.

Asked what would be needed to make any Iran deal enforceable, DeVore told Fox News Digital the U.S. must avoid repeating what he described as a key weakness of the Obama-era nuclear deal: allowing Tehran to restrict access or keep certain sites off limits. He said the “ultimate question” is onsite verification, warning that Washington cannot allow itself to be pushed into “an agreement for agreement’s sake.”

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DeVore also said the Obama-era JCPOA gave inspectors too much notice and too little freedom to inspect suspicious locations as well, arguing that any new deal must avoid a system where Iran can delay, limit or steer inspections before the IAEA gets on the ground.

DeVore told Fox News Digital that his concern is informed by his experience as a young special assistant for foreign affairs in the Reagan administration, when he worked on verification issues surrounding Cold War-era nuclear agreements with the Soviet Union, including the Peaceful Nuclear Explosions Treaty and the Threshold Test Ban Treaty.

In those negotiations, DeVore said, the danger was that the minimum level of verification sought by defense and intelligence officials could become the starting point for diplomats, meaning the final deal could end up below what experts believed was necessary.

“Once you say, ‘This is the minimum we need,’ then that becomes the starting point, so anything agreed to is less than that,” DeVore said. “That’s what I fear.”

Fox News Digital reached out to the IAEA asking whether the agency can currently account for Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile and whether it has any comment on the verification questions raised by the reported framework but did not hear back. The agency did not release any statement after Vance said they would be allowed access to Iran in time for publication.